Regional Economic Patterns · 3 min read

What the 2026 Ballot Means for North Country Businesses: An Owner’s Brief

A one-page brief for local business owners: energy, taxes, employee health coverage, workforce rules and Fort Drum, what each side would change, and what to do now whoever wins. Nonpartisan.

By John Ayala October 31, 2026

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In brief The main points in plain words · Transcript 2 min
Read aloud One AI voice reads the article 5 min
Discussion Two AI voices talk it through · Transcript 3 min

AI-generated audio. Charts and tables are on the page.

In brief transcript · 2 min of audio

This is the brief from WBA, Watertown Business Advisory, on the article What the 2026 Ballot Means for North Country Businesses: An Owner’s Brief.
Several major costs for your business are moving no matter who wins, and the race for governor is the biggest one on the ballot for your costs.
The two candidates for governor offer different paths. Blakeman proposes large tax cuts and lower power bills, without saying yet how they would be paid for. Hochul points to cuts and rebates already in place and to longer-term power supply.
Some changes are already decided. Small-group health plans have an approved average increase of eight percent for 2027. National Grid's current rate plan runs through March 2028, and a typical small commercial bill is a little over two thousand dollars a month. Removing state charges from that bill would take the Legislature or the state regulators, and the catch is that those charges also fund programs, including business efficiency incentives. Fort Drum matters to your customers: thirty-six percent of Jefferson County wage earners have jobs tied to the base, and the number of soldiers has fallen about twenty-six percent since 2013. The 2027 defense bill is stalled until after the election, and the House race matters most there. A state income-tax cut of twenty to thirty-five billion dollars a year would have to be paid for, and state aid to schools and local governments is one of the largest budget lines. Neither side has shown the full math. Your employees are affected too. Some who lost the Essential Plan in July now pay up to about two hundred fifty dollars a month for coverage. From January 2027, most employees on Medicaid aged nineteen to sixty-four must show about eighty hours of work a month, unless they qualify for an exemption, and some will ask you to confirm their hours.
Three things to do now, whoever wins. First, if your business uses a lot of electricity, apply for the state's low-cost hydropower programs for this region. Second, budget for an eight percent health renewal in 2027 and compare plans that allow health savings accounts. Third, prepare a simple hours-verification letter for employees on Medicaid before January.
The full article and a longer audio walk-through are at wbaconsulting.org.

Discussion transcript · 3 min of audio

Host 1 Picture this. You run a busy little diner, and you are sitting at a back table trying to figure out next year's budget.
Host 2 Right, I am looking at the cost of eggs, the electric bill, and wondering if I really need to raise the price of a cup of coffee again.
Host 1 Exactly. And this year some of those numbers move no matter who wins the election, while others depend on it. Welcome to a conversation from WBA, Watertown Business Advisory, about What the 2026 Ballot Means for North Country Businesses: An Owner’s Brief.
Host 2 That is my actual nightmare. So what is the bottom line here?
Host 1 The big idea is that no matter who wins the election, your business costs and employee rules are changing, and you need to get ready right now.
Host 2 Okay, so what is the first thing hitting my wallet?
Host 1 Employee health coverage. Imagine knowing your shop rent is absolutely going up next year, no matter who the landlord is.
Host 2 I would start putting money aside immediately. I hate surprises like that.
Host 1 Exactly. Small-group health plans are approved to go up by about eight percent on average in 2027.
Host 2 Wait, what does that actually mean for me? Eight percent is a huge jump for a small shop.
Host 1 It means whoever wins the governor's race, this cost is already baked in. You need to budget for that health renewal right now so you are not caught off guard.
Host 2 Okay, budget for health care. Got it. What else is changing? You mentioned staff paperwork earlier.
Host 1 Yes, this is about Medicaid. Picture a teenager needing a permission slip from their parents to go on a school trip.
Host 2 Sure, they just hand me a crumpled piece of paper as they are running out the door.
Host 1 Right. Starting in January 2027, most employees on Medicaid between nineteen and sixty-four will need to show about eighty hours of work a month, unless they qualify for an exemption.
Host 2 Why would that ever happen to me? I just run a shop, I do not manage government benefits.
Host 1 Because some of them will ask their employer to confirm their hours, so expect a few requests for a letter that lists their shifts.
Host 2 That makes sense. I can handle printing a simple letter for them. Is there anything else I need to watch?
Host 1 The last big one is Fort Drum. Think of it like a giant factory in town that keeps cutting shifts.
Host 2 If the factory slows down, my shop gets way fewer customers buying sandwiches.
Host 1 Exactly. More than a third of the county's wage earners have jobs tied to the base, and the number of soldiers there has fallen about a quarter since 2013.
Host 2 So that's one to watch after the election?
Host 1 Yes. The 2027 defense bill is on hold until after the vote, and for Fort Drum the House race matters most.
Host 2 OK, so what do I do on Monday? I am going to prepare a simple hours-verification letter for my employees on Medicaid so I am ready when they ask.
Host 1 That is perfect, because having that ready now will save you a massive headache before January. The full article is at wbaconsulting.org.

The short version

Several costs are moving no matter who wins: health premiums for 2027, Medicaid rules for your employees from January, and National Grid rates through 2028.
The governor's race is the big one for your costs. Blakeman offers large tax cuts and lower power bills without saying yet how they would be paid for. Hochul points to cuts and rebates already in place and longer-term power supply.
Three things you can do now, whoever wins: apply for NYPA's low-cost hydropower, plan for an 8% small-group health renewal, and get ready for employees asking you to document their hours.

The governor's race, side by side

For your business	Hochul (in effect or proposed)	Blakeman (proposed)
Your electric bill	Rebate checks already sent; new rules for utility rate requests from National Grid's next case (2028); new nuclear in the late 2030s; a pause on large data centers.	Remove state charges and "cut bills in half"; return about $2.4B the state energy agency holds as a one-time credit; end the fracking ban; lift the data-center pause.
Your income tax (most small-business owners pay through their personal return)	Lower rates for 2026, a bigger child credit and no tax on up to $25,000 in tips are in effect; no new cut proposed; pledges no increase.	No state income tax on the first $50,000 of income ($100,000 for couples), for everyone; the campaign puts the cost at $35B a year.
Your property tax	No new proposal found.	A 10% cut; no mechanism published (a governor cannot set local levies, so likely a state rebate).
Paying for it	Universal child care is a goal; no full cost published.	"Restructure state spending"; no list of cuts that adds up to the cost.

For an owner with household income of $35,000, the income-tax difference is about $1,295 a year; for a couple at $150,000, about $5,680. Run your own numbers with the tax calculator.

Five things on the ballot that reach your business

1. Power

What it costs now

A small commercial customer using about 12,600 kWh a month pays roughly $2,126: $857 delivery, $1,180 supply, $89 surcharges (National Grid, 2025). State climate-law costs were 15.7% of a typical commercial bill in 2024, forecast at 8.8% for 2025.

What to watch

Any removal of state charges needs the Legislature or the state regulators. The current National Grid rate plan runs to March 2028.

The catch: removing state charges also removes the programs they fund, including business efficiency incentives.

2. Health coverage for you and your employees

Already decided

Approved 2027 increases: 8% average for small-group plans, 6% for individual plans. No federal penalty for not offering coverage under 50 full-time-equivalent employees. Bronze and catastrophic plans now qualify for health savings accounts.

Who is on the ballot for it

In Congress, Tenney voted against extending the extra marketplace subsidies that expired in January (a North Country couple pays about $253 more a month); Ellman supports Medicare for All, which would replace employer plans.

3. Your workforce

Essential Plan

Employees earning about $32,000 to $40,000 (single) lost the Essential Plan in July and now buy marketplace plans, often up to about $250 a month. Expect questions about coverage or pay.

Medicaid work rules

From January 2027, employees on Medicaid aged 19 to 64 must show about 80 hours a month of work (or qualify for an exemption). Some will ask you to confirm their hours.

Tips

From 2026, up to $25,000 of tips is free of state income tax. Tell your tipped staff; Blakeman would remove the cap.

4. Fort Drum customers

The numbers

36% of Jefferson County wage earners have jobs tied to Fort Drum. The number of soldiers has fallen about 26% since 2013, to 13,320.

What to watch

The 2027 defense bill, stalled until after the election, and the Army's microreactor at Fort Drum. The House race (Tenney or Ellman) matters most here.

5. Property tax and local government

What is promised

Blakeman: a 10% property tax cut. For an average Watertown home that is about $340 a year; commercial properties would depend on how a cut is designed.

The catch

A state income-tax cut of $20 to $35 billion a year would have to be paid for, and state aid to schools and local governments is one of the largest budget lines. Neither side has shown the full math.

What to do now, whoever wins

Apply for NYPA Preservation Power or ReCharge NY if you use a lot of electricity; both are set aside for businesses in this region.
Check your electricity supply contract and whether your rate class still fits how you use power.
Budget for an 8% small-group health renewal in 2027, and compare HSA-eligible plans.
Prepare a simple hours-verification letter for employees on Medicaid ahead of January.
Watch after Nov. 3: the 2027 defense bill, the first state budget proposals in January, and any PSC action on bill charges.

Want help working through any of these for your business? That is what we do. The full research is in Read Before You Vote and its deep dives. WBA does not endorse candidates. This is a plain-English summary; every number comes from our full research, where each fact has a source.

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