The short version
- Bruce Blakeman wants no state income tax on the first $50,000 you earn ($100,000 for couples). For most households in Watertown, that means state income tax drops to zero or close to it.
- Kathy Hochul points to cuts already in place: lower rates this year, a bigger child credit and no tax on most tips. She promises no income-tax increase but is not proposing a new cut of this size.
- The big unknown: Blakeman's plan would cost the state $20 to $35 billion a year, a third to a half of all the income tax New York collects. The campaign has not said what would be cut to pay for it.
Think of state income tax as one line on your pay stub. Under the law in effect now, that line is already a bit smaller this year than last. Under Blakeman's plan, it would shrink to zero for many people here. Here is what that looks like in dollars.
A single renter making $35,000
Law in effect now (Hochul)
You owe about $1,295 in state income tax for 2026.
Blakeman's plan
You would owe $0. That is about $108 more a month in your pocket.
A married couple making $75,000 with two kids under 4
Law in effect now (Hochul)
About $744, after a $2,000 child credit that started in 2025.
Blakeman's plan
A $2,000 refund, if the child credit is kept (the campaign has not said). That is about $2,744 better a year.
A restaurant server: $28,000 in wages plus $12,000 in tips
Law in effect now (Hochul)
About $917. Tips up to $25,000 are already tax-free from this year.
Blakeman's plan
$0. He would also remove the $25,000 limit on tax-free tips.
A couple making $150,000
Law in effect now (Hochul)
About $7,182.
Blakeman's plan
About $1,502, roughly $5,680 less. Higher earners also get the first $100,000 tax-free.
So who comes out ahead on taxes alone? On the state income tax line, every household we tested pays less under Blakeman's plan, and the savings grow with income. Retirees living mostly on Social Security see little change, because New York does not tax Social Security now.
The catch. Picture the state budget as a household budget. If a third or more of the paycheck disappears, something else has to give. The state pays for school aid, Medicaid, roads and local government help. The Blakeman campaign has said it would "restructure state spending" and cut money for migrants and refugees, but has not shown numbers that add up to $20 to $35 billion. Hochul's side has its own open question: she wants universal child care and has not said what it would cost when fully built.
Property taxes. Blakeman also promises a 10% cut. For an average Watertown home that is about $340 a year. A governor cannot cut local tax bills directly, so it would likely come as a state rebate check, and renters would see it only if landlords pass it on.
Want your own number? Use the tax calculator in the full article. WBA does not endorse candidates. This is a plain-English summary; every number comes from our full research, where each fact has a source.